UBB.threads Forums Edged Weapons SA & NSKK Dagger Forum Rising NM to Mint prices are hear to say!

For the folks who think I was smoking crack when I posted my NM on the for sale forum for $1400.00 I would like to share w/ you all that Lakesidetrader Mr Paul has sold an early Paul Weyersberg $1695.00. He also sold a Herbertz & Meurer for $1295.00. Both SUPER nice daggers and worth the cash.

So yes nice SA are selling for big $$$ but they are hard to find!

the facts prove, high SA prices for nice examples are here to stay. Get use to it.

I must agree. I have had to pay $1,500 and $2,000 to get two mint early SA's and that was a FIRM no negotiations price. As an SA collector, I would advise a collector who wants the 'good stuff' to get it NOW. SA's have nowhere to go but up. They are not going to go down...not at all..

Good luck hunting them..

Mark

No Eric, you were not smoking crack or else, Mark and I are also smoking the same stuff as we both paid premium prices for "unique" SA's.
You can get E++ SA's all over the place quite easily I must say, but getting real "minty" SA's ? Sorry guys but they are not just around.
If you find one, unless you're really lucky, you better get the big guns out 'cause it won't be cheap.

And so the boys drive up the prices cuz they can. I saw this in Tech stocks. I saw this in commodities. I saw this in fine art. Be aware that in musical chairs, when the music stops, you become a bagholder. But Go ahead fellas. Bid em up. I'll sell what I got and do it again. Lets do 2nd Lufts next. Someone quickly write a book. I love greed. Is that not what we human monkeys are all about?:}

Really cherry SA's have always been tough to find, just like HJ's with mottos. It does seem they've taken a big jump of late, but I doubt they will come back down. Seems like the price may stagnate for a while, but never really drop. I do hope there are younger collectors coming into the collecting field as the old guard moves on. The big names are getting up there in age, but there are younger(40 year olds?) "experts/dealers" in the wings. I think the vet finds will continue to dry up, then it will only be the collector estate/divorce sales as the source of new material to purchase. So I hope when it comes time to sell my collection, it will have been a good investment. If not, I sure enjoyed the chase. My wife always threatens to sell my daggers 3 fer a dollar if I kick off....

watch it edwardo you are going to get jumped on for those heretical opinions.:-) As for the wife vs. daggers option - that's a no-brainer. Does ones wife's value double every few years?

Edwardo, Everything in this hobby is going up in value, some things slowly and some very fast. It appears you are are a disillusioned collector. You may want to become a premium member so you may share pictures and sell your stuff on the forum.

We were all young pups in this hobby once. One can either run with the big dogs or stay on the porch. Some of us paid dues for a long time choosing and picking very carefully, reading and studying what to collect. You should not berate others who have studied the trends and interests better than you may have.

I hope you do better in militaria than the other investments you espouse to know about.

Mark

quote:

I hope you do better in militaria than the other investments you espouse to know about.

Sir,

My investments have afforded me a lifestyle that most do not/will not have. I am basically retired at 41. No debt. House paid for. As for militaria it is no investment. It is a hobby like many hobbies I have. Fun. No "disillusion" there. As for becoming a premium member, who knows. Certainly not to sell. And does "questioning trends" equate to "beratement? If militaria is an investment then it certainly should be questioned.

Ed

It is a bitter-sweet situation.
For those who have a large collection the value increase is sweet.
For those of us wanting to grow our collections... not so sweet.
I bought a truly MINT SA at the last MAX, today it has increased in value by 35%+, in 5 months???!!!
My only concern is for the hobby long term. I am 30 years old and began collecting about 4 years ago... I can tell you honestly that when I got into the hobby I thought long and hard because at that time I did not think I should collect daggers due to their high prices and my inability to have a large collection. I was actually thinking seriously about tinnies!
My point is that if SA's were going for $1400 when I thought about getting into this hobby, I NEVER would have!!!
These prices are going to choke out the next generation of collectors and it will become a hobby of those with $$$$$$$$$$$$$.
I have been to the last several MAX and SOS shows and have seen almost NO collectors younger than myself... except Adam Kirchen... Hmmm whatever happened to that guy???
Hmmm... I may have to re-think tinnie collecting!!!

Collectors are an odd lot.Why must we possess such items? When we can go to any of the big shows and get an eyefull of TR items for $10.00.If one is in it for the money the time to sell is now.I think it is a status thing .I have a mint Himmler or whatever so I am on this rung of the status ladder and if I get an unground Rohm I will move up to the next rung and if you do not have these items that makes me that much better than you (In the status sense)This collecting is something that came about in the 20th century.Before that if an item had no use,there was no use for it.I am talking about the magnitude of collecting on todays scale. You and I are the ones who dictate what an item is worth,not the dealers.When we buy it we make it worth it for whatever reason.For myself many TR items are not worth what people are asking.If I will not buy them for the asking price I will not climb to the next rung on the status ladder.To this I say WHO CARES!(:}X

This discussion reminds me of an old Richard Pryor line.."You don't get to be old being no fool...there's a LOT of dead young wise men".

To those who are older and have lived thru a good life, the appreciation in value of your home or other things like old guns, cars, you name it is something that a serious person plans for and sometimes comes to expect.

Everything was cheaper before now. That's a rule of life. Personally, I spent my life in sales. If I wanted to buy more stuff, I had the ability to sell more stuff and make more money to afford the stuff I wanted.

Point being, if you don't think this hobby is an investment, I personally think you are deluding yourself. If you buy rat daggers to have a "collection" you will have a collection of rat daggers that does not grow in value. But, you will have them a long time since few others want them. So we have several ends of the community here. Some are short on lifespan remaining and long on cash earned thru hardwork. Others are younger, just starting out but shorter on cash.

In the end we all wind up the same taking the long dirt nap. What you enjoy and love before then can make a big difference in your trip. Pay yer dues, whine if you must and just get the best stuff you can while you can. It's just a hobby and some do better at it than others because they work much harder at it and contribute to the knowledge base which in turn increases values as more becomes known. I never thought SA daggers would top $1,200.00 on a routine basis, but as an early collector I sure hoped they would. I consulted with the experts years ago, when this forum was founded and followed the advice I was given. Craig, for one example, told me to buy every mint early SA dagger I could afford as he felt they were a great value. I bought one for $800.00 10 years ago when they were $300-$400 each. I sold it within the first year I had it for $1,400.00 to a collector who chased it down. Now, you don't have to bang your head on a brick wall to realize it feels better when you stop. I bought more and now I find to my 'great surprise' that it WAS a great investment. Now, I'm on to Allach. A whole 'nother level of cost and knowledge is required there. That is truly and always been, investment stuff. Capitalism is a great thing if you work hard at it. Having fun with it requires some bad scrapes along the way. The only way you learn is if it costs you and in this hobby as well as all others, if you make a mistake and it costs you, the more it costs you..the better you learn.

The Gospel of Kingtiger is over for today!

Mark

With the escalating prices of most 3rd Reich collectables and notably edged weapons, we are seeing prices jump $100's of dollars in a very short time, especially for mint items. The problem is when someone puts their item up for sale as "near mint" and in actuality it isn't close to being that. They have the misconception that just becaue TJ, TW, CG, or PH are selling this or that for $$$, that they too can get those prices. Unless you're known in this hobby for selling items that have satisfy several collectors over and over again and with a proven track record, you're not going to get these prices. And if you over rate the condition of a number of pieces, you'll never get to that point in this hobby. You see this all the time at the SOS and MAX.

Good point Jr and this is why I've stated in my thread concerning Eric SA, that real "near mint" conditioned SA's are well worth $ 1200 USD.
The biggest problem that I accounter as a collector, is the fact that 90% of the time, a dagger being described as near mint is actually just an E++.
I'm very picky in what I buy and I'm very conservative in my grading but it seems that most dealers are not as picky when it comes to grading their daggers and that's extremely annoying.
But what can we do, it seems to be the norms these days.

Last year alone, I sold over 40 SS daggers, from lower quality ones to expensive Chains, Himmlers, and Full Rohms. Never do I look at who is zooming who, nor for how much. I look at how much I'm into the item for, and I look at what I think the market is for that particular item. When it sells, that in fact tell me where the market is for the item that I'm selling.

There are 30 chains on the net right now for sale. They are not flying off of the dealers sites because of one main factor. Price VS Condition. Usually the dealers won't lower their prices all that much. ( unless it's Craig at the end of a big show and he's out of cash ) so the item remains until someone justifies the condition after searching for a better one, and can't find it. On many private sales, the vendor will lower the price until it sells. That gentlemen is where the market price is for that particular item... at that time.

...........and the most surprising thing, is that there's also a mint early SS EM for sell on one of the major dealer web site right now and it has been sitting there for almost a year.
Who would have thought that a pristine condition early SS EM would sit there for such a long period of time at only
$ 5500 USD.

Great point JR, the current value is what it sells for, either by auction, or lowering the price until it sells. Dealer prices can confuse the issue, because they may not represent the true worth, until it actually sells. Some new collectors may overpay, thinking that the dealer price is the real current value. I know I did in the past. I bought a rare Alcoso original catalog for $900. Ten years later, I sold it back to the dealer for half. Luckily, I used the money toward a nice SS when they were under 2K, so I feel I've got my money back in the mean time. In the 25+ years I've been collecting, I think some dealers have some of the same stock I saw back then....they just don't give up on their inflated prices.....or maybe, it's really part of their collection on display as eye candy, ...hehehe


John

When I consider a mint blade in an SA dagger................... this is what I think of. And that is the reason that this one sold right away. Nice dagger Dr. John, a pesonal favorite maker of mine.

Well JR, you and I both have the same opinion about what a trully mint blade should look like.

My two cents, for what they're worth..
I would say I'm like Johnny V. I too am only 30 years old and have been only collecting TRM for about five years. By no means do I have a collection that is museum worthy, nor the funds to come up with nything close to it. I do collect what I can afford and the prices of the really nice stuff I feel is justified. If the hobby had no desireable level to get to, no fancy pieces that only a few can afford, then why collect anything. Take cars..really nice old cars from the 60's and 70's go for what a nice SUV nowadays retails for. I wish I had enough, but I don't. (Also the fact that I have a wife and three young children put a bit of a strain on the militaria budget) But I feel that the market value of things responds to the desire people have of owning certain products. My dad always told me something is worth only what someone is willing to pay for it. I also told him that it's also the best to get as much as you can for it.

I have gone to lots of shows and get the same response, It's nice to see young collectors. Like Johnny V stated, there aren't many of us out there. (I guess feel good in the fact that there are not a lot of younger collectors, ergo no competition later on when I actually get the funds.HAHA)

I guess through all this jungled mess, I feel that the prices of the SA's are justified and that it only makes sense that the market will continue upwards. If there isn't anything that's worth striving for, dreaming for, and saving for, then why the hell do it. Go collect something else. I hear stamp collecting is good?

Richard

When it comes to value in an edged weapon, there is no substitute quality. The best blades out there will always set the bar to which others will be compared to. If you want to protect the value in the daggers that you buy for your collection, then follow the steps of Patrice, Dr. John and others that strive for the best. Get rid of the 4 beater SA daggers that you have lying around, and buy a nice one. The best blades will pay the best dividends.

JR is 100% right. The thing is that it's not easy to even find some really really minty items for sale. Helmets and Edged weapons are prime examples. There are lots of them in collections-but you really don't see them offered for sale at any price. Many do sell "under the table" to friends or to those on dealer "want lists" but they are usually not just lying there for you to pick up and buy. So-when you see a mint item you really want-and you think it's a bit too much--just buy it. You won't be sorry as there will be someone right behind you who will. It'll be me if I'm there or one of many others. You will never lose money in the long run on a choice item.
Good SOS advise-jump on it!-don't put it down once you have it in your hands!--or when you blink your eyes-it will be gone!

Gentlemen,

I have to disagree with some of you (again):

- If you look at this hobby as a true investment, then buying mint items at any price is probably one of the worst strategies one can adopt. If you see collecting as investing than you have to buy value for money: better buy an Exc++ item at 70% of its current market price than a NM item at 150% of its market value. If market prices double (let's say in 1 year to make calculations easy), you will have made a return of 180% on the EXC++ dagger investment and only 33% on the NM item.

- Second important consideration for the investor is the liquidity of the items he invests into: for high end, expensive items (for example full R�hms and Himmlers) the market is much smaller than for more affordable items (like HJ's, Kriegsmarine, SA's,...etc) so it might take a longer time to realise your return buy selling the high-end item or you might even be forced to sell it to a dealer with a loss (great example that John told us about!).

- A third investing mistake is buying items just after an important price increase (like what happens with SA's at the moment). I agree that the price is probably not going to go down (taking the assumption that you did not pay too much for it!)
Just like with stock you have to look for those items that will (soon) double in price, not the ones that just have doubled!

Conclusion: just collect for pleasure, it makes things much easier, you can buy whatever you want at any price you are willing to pay! Just make sure to buy originals!

Best greetings,

Herman

quote:

Originally posted by Herr Mann:
Gentlemen,

- If you look at this hobby as a true investment....

Conclusion: just collect for pleasure....
Best greetings,

Herman

I can only agree with Herman, only buy for pleasure and not for investment. I hardly ever sell any of my daggers anyway and when I do, they mostly go to friends of mine and I usually never make any profits ( what a nice guy !)
As for investment purposes, I will stick with the stock market and/or real estate.
Anyone with just a bit of luck, easily made a 40% return (stock market) on their investment in the past 4 years..............and these are conservative figures.

Patrice my friend while I agree with the sentiments you stated in your last post above as far as I know you only buy items in "mint"* condition.
Keeping that in mind what would you do if you could acquire one of Gorings daggers that wasn't in mint condition? As an additional point what would you have done if you were in C. Gottliebs position of having acquired a rare the (Amann) dagger for example in less than mint condition? Have it restored as Craig did? Dumped it off because it wasn't mint?
What should collectors do with daggers they own that show honest wear? Discard them? Consider themselves to be 2nd tier collectors?** because they can't afford the prices asked for mint daggers?

*I am using the term "mint" here in the interest of brevity as IMO it's been highjacked from the coin collecting hobby where it properly belongs and really doesn't apply to an item such as a dagger.
**I have been told privately by former collectors that they left the hobby because the "Cult of the Mint"(my term) has dictated that collections of items in less that this condition are not desireable.

I have been in this hobby a short 7 years. In that period I've seen it evolve from an enjoyable pursuit where condition of an item was important but the historical significence was of far great importance. As primarily a historian myself I'd still rather own a dagger that shows use but "has that been there and done that look" rather than one some GI looted out of a Solingen manufactures unsold stock.
As I state this anyone who has personally seen my collection knows I own daggers that would quality as being in "mint" condition.
I really wasn't going to bother saying anything and my appologies to friends I exchanged private emails with about this subject but I think someone has to take exception here.
Jim

What is missing from this discussion is the fact that we don't have reliable grading standards for daggers and probably never will. In my book an exc++ dagger is already in super condition and not all that much separates it from near mint. I don't believe in describing anything as mint, but there are always a few exceptional pieces of all dagger models. The way I see it, if a dagger is being sold as near mint for $1500, then there is probably more of an immediate upside to buying the same dagger in exc++ for $750. That being said, I do like the exceptional pieces and I have paid the price to get them.

quote:

Originally posted by jim m:

**I have been told privately by former collectors that they left the hobby because the "Cult of the Mint"(my term) has dictated that collectors of items in less that this condition are not desireable.

Jim, I once had a collector/dealer make this very astute quote: "The main difference between Civil War and German collectors is that Civil War collectors want their stuff to look like it's 150 years old. German collectors want their stuff to look like it was made yesterday."

I hope Patrice adds me to his list of friends!

My first SA wasn't mint, but it was early(Emil Voos) and unmessed with, plus it was $75, so I could barely afford it on my $5 an hour job.
I love near mint daggers, no doubt. But something is to be said for an unmessed piece with the "been there" look. I tried to collect HJ's with mottos...for 20 years, price was really no object, and in the end, I have maybe 10 HJ's. Sure, they are worth the high end of the scale now, but I sure wish I had lowered my standards a little to get more of them, as they have very interesting maker marks....
I collect NPEA's too, and they are hard to get in any condition, so I did buy them even when the blade wasn't mint. I'm glad I did, as I really like the ones with age, patina, that "been there" look. If it's a later NPEA, and it looks brand new, it probably is! I also like badges with some real age to them....
In the end, I think it is true, buy what you like and enjoy. It may turn out to be a good investment, but no one will give you a guarantee. If terrorists nuke a US city and the banks/economy collapses...well, daggers won't be worth much but my gun collection will go through the roof!


John

quote:

Originally posted by Patrice:
No Eric, you were not smoking crack or else, Mark and I are also smoking the same stuff as we both paid premium prices for "unique" SA's.
You can get E++ SA's all over the place quite easily I must say, but getting real "minty" SA's ? Sorry guys but they are not just around.
If you find one, unless you're really lucky, you better get the big guns out 'cause it won't be cheap.

Hello Jim,

I don't only buy "mint" pieces my friend and 90% of my stuff is anywhere between an E++ to NM.
I actually only have about 3 or 4 daggers that I would honestly rate as being mint.
I'm just as excited about buying a nice dagger in an E++ condition at a 30% discount as compared to a mint piece.
I was probably mistunderstood but I do not discard E++ daggers, as they are part of my modest collection
To be quite frank with you, some of my favorite pieces are actually not the minty one's.
I would definitively buy an E++ SS EM any time for less than $ 4000 USD, but would also buy a near minty one for $ 5000 USD.
The problem lies where most people rate a dagger as being near mint when in fact it is an E++.

Here's one of my all time favorite and though it only rates as an E++ at best, I still wouldn't sell it, guess why ?
And I've plenty more daggers just in the same condition and I still love them.

Just to let you all know that I love all the daggers I come across. I have made some money but I usually end up buying the high end daggers/hangers with the profits. Thus I keep buying and selling until I can afford a Super nice example. I could never afford to spend 5k on a dagger BUT if you find deals, keep moving them and save your $$ you can afford the nicer itmes,

BTY I am 31 and I am only missing 10 daggers from my collection. Not counting the High leaders or the ultra rare types.

So the collecting to me is a challange, and to be VERY honest I will sell all of them in a heart beat if the price was right!

Gentlemen!


This is a very interesting discussion about what this hobby really is about.

Mint items are just amazing and I would like to own some good pieces myself, and I know I will sooner or later.
Mint items are IMO really good investments for those who have purchased before this hyper price increases started.

I have another point of view regarding my own collecting, I really like SA: s specially in good condition like exc++ that shows normal wear and really been there and tells a story, those items really have a soul and are IMO the most interesting items for those interesting in the Third Reich history, in this case the SA.

Mint and tagged SA:s could possible have been liberated directly from the producers factories in Solingen or other places in Germany by the allies in the end of the war without being wear or owned by any SA man ever.
So what is really the different between a new mint SA taken from the factory in Solingen 1945 or later and if possible a new produced SA from Solingen today, I would say none.
Both are new looking items made possible by the same producers still remain today and 62 years different really doesn�t matter. Of course I�m wrong but I�m sure you understand my point.

I�m glad there are still a lot of good period pieces out there that tells a story and show some normally wear. I will continue buying those interesting pieces, and of course I will not say no when a mint piece will cross my way.

Sam,

Patrice:
Personally I don't have any problem with a rating system such as Poor,Fair,Good,Very Good, Excellent and Unissued*. But how do you objectively rate a dagger as Excellent-, Excellent+ or Excellent++ ? The only true structured system I've ever seen for dagger evaluation and grading was the one developed by Gailen David and Craig Gottlieb several years ago. I personally felt it was accurate but too complex for actual use particularly in the field(i.e. at shows).
*As far as I'm concerned the term "Unissued" much more accurately reflects the condition of unused probably looted from manufacturers stocks daggers than the term "mint". Unissued is the term used in the gun collecting hobby to describe new but vintage guns found in storage and firearms are much closer to daggers in construction than coins.
BTW: Patrice it appears that the grip on the very nice dagger you posted is tiger maple a scarce choice for an SA grip. There are dings that I can see in the right side of the grip that,if this were a coin, would certainly take it out of the "mint" category.
This whole thread keeps bringing flashbacks back to me to a line uttered by Bok in the ice cave in Logans Run: "There is no sanctuary!"

A friend of mine just emailed me this on a totally unrelated subject but it brought something to mind. We've become so totally fixated on outdoing each other in this "Hobby" that we've completely lost track of why we became interested in the first place. If Admin feels the religious connotation is inappropriate here feel free to delete it.

A group of alumni, highly established in their careers, got together to visit their old university professor. Conversation soon turned into complaints about stress in work and life.

Offering his guests coffee, the professor went to the kitchen and returned with a large pot of coffee and an assortment of cups - porcelain, plastic, glass, crystal, some plain looking, some expensive, some exquisite - telling them to help themselves to the coffee.

When all the students had a cup of coffee in hand, the professor said: "If you noticed, all the nice looking expensive cups were taken up, leaving behind the plain and cheap ones. While it is normal for you to want only the best for yourselves, that is the source of your problems and stress.

Be assured that the cup itself adds no quality to the coffee. In most cases it is just more expensive and in some cases even hides what we drink. What all of you really wanted was coffee, not the cup, but you consciously went for the best cups... And then you began eyeing each other's cup.
Now consider this: Life is the coffee; the jobs, money and position in society are the cups. They are just tools to hold and contain Life, and the type of cup we have does not define, nor change the quality of Life we live.

Sometimes, by concentrating only on the cup, we fail to enjoy the coffee God has provided us."

God brews the coffee, not the cups.......... Enjoy your coffee!

"The happiest people don't have the best of everything. They just make the best of everything."

Live simply... Love generously... Care deeply... Speak kindly... Leave the rest to God.


Jim

Whether prices are going up or down is a matter of opinion, and something every collector needs to decide for himself. Investigate the items, decide why you collect, and make your decision - there are no guarantees. As Patrice stated above, there is some variation in grading. I think the hobby would be helped immensely by a grading & authenticity committee that would issue photo certificates for militaria items as they do for stamps. In the case of coins & currency they are actually encased in archival clear plastic. In each of these collecting fields this professional grading standardised trading & gave the market a shot in the arm. Not everything is NM to mint - not to mention real!

Grading daggers like coins will never, ever, EVER work! Even Craig has apparently abandoned his grading system, since he no longer uses it on his website. Daggers are much more like antique furniture than coins. There is no grading system for antique furniture. The condition is what your eyes tell you it is. Either it appeals to you or it is rejected for some reason. Many intangibles exist that CANNOT be graded!

i usually buy the best ones i can find. after looking at these things since 1993, you knida get a feel for whats out there at major shows. i like minty blades that show alittle in and out wear and about all crossgrain with just a hint of age here and there just to let you know its real. undamaged and perfect fitting grip to crossgards. and yellow patinated fittings to let you know this thing has been sitting in the words dirty air for 70 years. if i see a piece like this ill jump in my wallet pretty darn quick. rare makers that have this look will empty your pocket if you got the mad money on ya.

The condition is what your eyes tell you it is. Either it appeals to you or it is rejected for some reason. Many intangibles exist that CANNOT be graded!

Not a bad thought!

PVON

All the big dealers said that stamps, coins & currency couldn't be independently graded yet it was done. At least a photo certificate could be issued as to whether it was genuine and in new or used condition. I think dealers are cool to this idea because the COAs they issue are subject to the whims of the seller. If they disagree with you about whether the item is authentic you are SOL. The same problems existed with fake coins & grading prior to the 1980s. Now coins are a billion dollar industry because of expertization. Currency & stamps soon followed. I think this would help the buyer & seller. The only hold-up is that the volume of trading might not justify the start-up costs in the beginning. But once it got off the ground - you could have a monthly list of buy-sell prices that everyone could use for tinnies to SA leader daggers.

Brian, I like your idea. And it would be nice. But I don't think it would work in out "industry". I agree with Skyline for one. And secondly, what would some of the dealers do when they bought your dagger and paid you on the scale of exe+, and then put it on their site as a mint-? Would they legally be liable to pay you the difference?
I believe many here would like to leave it as unregulated as ever. That way they can keep saying when they have it "it's mint", same same dagger but you have it, "yea, it's clean, OK excellent!" And I think it will continue like that because as Skyline mentioned, you can't really grade a dagger as you would a coin.
However with some of the money involved in this business, maybe one day we will be able to have some sort of benchmark where we can evolve past the "I got it-it's MINT! You got it-it's clean" grading system. -wagner-

Isnt a mint dagger just a highly polished near mint dagger .Rob

I am afraid it is we, the collectors that have given rise to the increase in SA daggers as of late. I have been collecting since the early 80's and have seen many a spike in price, but nothing to compare with the market on SA's (well maybe SS's comes close)in the past 6 months.

What, I wonder has happened to fuel such a demand. Have the Hunt brothers cornered the SA market? Has some twisted rich liberal bought them up and thrown them into a big furnace? I have heard little else in the past 8 months, but "Buy your's now before Tom's book comes out and there will be nothing left for you". There has been, in my humble opinion, a small amount of hysteria involved.