UBB.threads Forums General Interest Community Center hobby peaked ?

A friend of mine has just sold his extensive Dagger collection , he thinks that this hobby is on the Decline and says he is getting out before it crashes . I personally don't share this scenario , was wondering what other members thoughts on this are . cheers Rob !

Has been declining for some time.
Since most of us think that pricing on many items was drastically over inflated to begin with, some hold the view that this decline is only a reflection of reality.
Generally, the minty and uncommon stuff, and most SS, still command top $, and will for the foreseeable future.
Common, average/poor condition items have dropped, and will likely drop even further.
So there is no clear answer to your question, and much depends on the general world wide economic outlook.
Less $$ in circulation, less demand, prices go down.
Put another way, when more and more people face the choices of paying their cell phone bill, feeding their family, putting gas in the truck, or buying a nice SA dagger, the choice will be clear for most.
Any collectible item is really an extravagance, and those types of things tend to rank low in priority when things start getting tight financially.

In relation, more guys are selling stuff for extra $$, which creates more supply ,,, taken together with less demand, its only natural that prices will drop.

Skynyrd:

Very well put.

As in anything, good stuff holds up well and stays in demand, crap doesn't.

John

There are different problems associated with the current collectible situation. The economy, of course, is likely the main culprit. Although new (mostly younger) collectors are coming on board, it seems most collectors are middle-aged and older. Probably a generational thing. I don't think the Third Reich and all that goes with it is of much interest to the younger folks. Many don't seem to even know what WWII is. The problem with high-end collectibles is selling them. Those who can afford them and willing to spend considerable amounts on them are few and far between. Although they are desirable to many, those with the means and desire to purchase are few. Tried to sell an SS sword or chained dagger lately? Then you know what I mean. The "big dealers" seem to be doing okay. It's always been a mystery to me they can sell high-end items for high-end prices when a smaller dealer or collector offers a comparable item for considerably less and no one is interested. The more common collectibles have dropped in price, no doubt, but I suspect they are near bottom. They will probably continue to sell well, especially to new collectors. It's all about the money. If you are in the hobby, or just entering it, on a limited budget, the more common items can be bought reasonably. The costlier ones will move slowly, if at all. Most will probably set in their current collections for quite some time.

I think that the reason that the big dealers can sell while the small dealers of collectors cannot rests with what I would call 'branding'.

The big dealers have an image and a reputation, sometimes deserved and sometimes not, that implies authenticity. The brand or the image is what gets a guy with money to buy and to bypass the guy without the image. After all, if you can afford to spend $35k on a Railway Water Protection Dagger, you can pay a premium to buy it from a reputable and solid dealer.. why take a risk and maybe save $5k buying from a no-name, no reputation guy?

John

A lot of the truly rare pieces never reach the dealer sites and change hands behind the scenes and are still going for big bucks. Being a collector of Political awards, a 1st type Coburg Badge which is extremely rare went for 9800.00 including fees at a recent Hermann Historica auction to a Russian collector.

I would think that the larger dealers attract the best stock when collectors sell or the average Joe finds a good dagger. Better stock + reputation + presence at shows = More offers of good daggers = more good daggers for sale. No surprise there, I hope.

Read John Z's post above which says it all. The ultimate example: Remember the SS Honor dagger that was brought into the last MAX to Tom Wittmann? The gent paid to get in, walked to TW's tables and showed him the dagger. I was there and he said he (and perhaps relatives) has researched it and the top dealers. Afterward, he walked straight out again.

As for the common items, they are not selling and never did. A well used SA or Heer or luft was priced (hopefully by dealers) at #350-400 a few years ago and did not sell. Then "the Russians are buying junk!" so the same junk was priced upwards and did not sell either. Now it is back to the same hopeful price and is STILL not selling. And will not.

Now for the good stuff, it is selling very well from what I hear. The SOS was said to be a good show for those who had good stock.

Anyway, despite the "Chicken Little Brigade" dagger collecting is still there in my opinion. Economic times are pinching a lot of collectors which mean they save their coins for the really good stuff or keep their powder dry.

Dave

They do change hands and will likely continue to do so. But, you have to have the connections, be on an inside track or sell through an auction or dealer. Advertising a high-end item on a "lower-end" auction and most collector websites will get you nowhere, as a rule. Most who visit them are looking for bargains. There are many collectors who are known to be reputable and have been around for quite a while. But, if they come up with an expensive item for sale, it seldom goes. If they send it to a "major dealer" or "quality" auction and pay a commission, it's more likely to sell quickly. Such is the nature of the beast, I guess. Experienced collectors usually know what they are buying in advance, culling out the bad stuff on their own. Return guarantees are a must and most reputable sellers offer them. You take a big chance by buying from an unknown, especially one in a foreign country. There are members here I would not hesitate to buy from. There are also "chancy" dealers and you really need to know your stuff, not relying on their reputations alone. Most basic collectibles seem to be moving well, but at lower prices. Higher end ones can and do move within certain circles. Unfortunately, if you have an expensive item for sale, you almost have to go that route to sell it.

Not to mention that when an offer is made to a small dealer or to a collector, it is made by many of us at a discount to what the dealer price would be, in some cases even lower than what you would realize from the dealer himself if you consigned it to him.

My personal example is the plain bladed SS Honor dagger that I originally purchased from Chip Gambino. When I decided that I wanted to sell it, I did get a couple of silly offers that basically indicated that the price I had paid Chip for it was known and was going to be the maximum that would be paid to me for it. So, I consigned it with Tom Wittman, who sold it (to a Russian) and we both made good money on it. Why, Tom? Because he had the reputation, the expertise and the respect of the buying community that I did not. As well, he had the contacts to present it to.

John

Anyone that says that the hobby hasn't declined, has to be living on another planet or be a dealer, period.

Just couple of years ago, any mint early SS EM would sell for at least $ 6000 and $ 1500 for an early SA, in today's market you would be pretty damn lucky to get 80% of your price. Less desirable daggers are doing even worst and are just not selling, even if they are stone mint. Just ask anyone trying to sell a minty Army or Kreisgmarine dagger nowadays, quite depressing ?

It is quite clear that the hobby has taken a big hit downward and I also think that prices will stay at this level for many years to come.
Fewer people are collecting and the average age of most collectors at SOS were well over 50 years old, not exactly what I call "new blood".

The good news, JohnZ and I are not collecting for investment purposes............thank goodness or I would be going mad.

Forgot to add, on another forum there is a stone mint full Rohm SA and a stone mint TENO and hangers for sale at well below any dealer's retail prices and yet................... no takers ? That's say it all, no need for explanation.

The prices you refer to Pat contributed to younger collectors turning away. Some of us stayed and as prices come back down to 'reality' im hopeful these people may consider jumping in again.

It's a great time to be assembling a collection of representative daggers: lots of great daggers to have at reduced prices. The uber-expensive stuff is not coming down in price, and it's always selling. But the $15,000 and below daggers have seen a correction of about 20%. There are daggers on my website that would have disappeared 2 years ago. Most of the slow-down is a result of uncertainty. That's why my auction is succeeding - because for people who do want to sell, the auction format provides a better "market clearing" function than does a retail website, where the price a dealer is asking may be too little or too much - the point is that nobody really knows what something "should" go for, other than to put it in an auction and see what it actually DOES go for.

Just a lack of remembering to have fun at doing it. Sometimes it just aint about the "market" trust me!! Its a great time to be a collector.We have yet to see some of the best stuff.

I hate it when I see words like junk and crap applied to an item just because it's not mint.Guess if an item isn't mint or near mint it should just be thrown into a landfill so the purists in this hobby don't have to waste their time looking at it.

I think another reason your seeing more rare items these days is because a lot of old established collections are now coming to market.

Some very good points raised here and I think that we are all pretty well in agreement that that prices were artificially high. I said so way back and of course this is not a new discussion. Collectors are very discerning and know what the real value is. The over - inflated dealer prices we still see (and some continually increase!) do not bear any relationship to reality.

The collection of this material has been in decline for several years with the exception of the "hard core" element. We will still buy at the right price for what we want, but only for very specific items. We are fewer than ever because as mentioned earlier it is without doubt a generational thing.

I also agree with Rich who these days is a man of few words and is clearly as hacked off with the "mint brigade" as I am. Sure we all like to appreciate something that is well preserved but as i said a long time ago, they can`t all be Prom Queens!

Cog is right: now, for example, is an outstanding time to assemble a collection of production daggers.

Just to clarify my previous post,I have nothing at all against those collectors who want only the best in their collections,that's fine for them.But others aren't as picky as to condition,for them it might be the joy of owning a piece of history that has 'character'.To each their own!

As to the idea that the hobby has peaked,maybe for some it certainly has,but look at the prices being asked by a few of the top dealers.They seemingly don't think it's peaked if they're still asking top dollar+ for fairly common blades.Of course they can afford to wait for those deep-pocketed buyers to pounce since they have already made big bucks in the hobby.
As for me,it peaked years ago,I just can't justify paying the prices asked.Now I prefer to put more of my money into my cars.They won't hold their value as well as my dagger collection in the long run,but they sure as hell make me feel good in the mean time!

Thanks to all for their replies , Think pat an john z got it right , that if you are an investor then forget it . As for me i enjoy it for what it is, an interesting hobby . As for my friend ,well his loss was my gain ... if you catch my drift cheers Rob !

Like Rich my interest has drifted.I would buy 2+ daggers every year,now with the prices from both dealers and collectors asking dealer prices I've lost a lot of interest.When I sell it's usually a bargain price as I bought over 10 yrs ago.

Here is my take, EVERYTHING collectible has taken a hit, from Classic cars, homes, Art, Rolex's, to Swizzle sticks. There is a surplus of everything under the sun. Heck I counted 28 1st Mod lufts on 1 dealers web site. Why...people are fearful of the economic situation. Gold and silver have risen to all time highs as hedges against the US Dollar, and inflation fears. So what does this mean? If you read history this is nothing new, we will recover from the "fear factors" and rise above the ashes. It will be a hard 5+ years to get out of the land fill we dug ourselves into. IMO you can get great deals IF you have cash. I have been buying and selling some really nice and rare items lately. Yes for much lower prices as I buy and sell to upgrade my own collection. Also tons of stuff has came out of the weeds as people need cash. Bottom line, buy what you like and you will never be "stuck" with it. Better time will come folks.

I'm going to disagree with you here a bit:
The classic car market is alive and well with the Arizona auction companies reporting good to excellent results in their sales of this year. I follow this market as I reside virtually in the core of it. You may want to review the results for Barrett Jackson R&M and some of the other auction companies for this year.
Another area that has remained strong is collectible firearms as evidenced by the James Julia auction that just ended with Ernest Hemmingways 577 Nitro double rifle fetching around $330,000*. This is just one example and many other lots in this auction brought high prices. I follow firearms auctions carefully and have yet to see a "fire sale" in this area. If anything some areas seen to have continued up in pricing in the last couple of years.

*This is about triple of what would be expected of a double rifle without the Hemmingway provenance but from this British maker.
Jim

Yes BUT your average condition classic cars are not selling well as least in my neck of the woods. Even some of the high end cars are slow movers IE 1963 Jag @ 100k+. The gun mentioned could be compared to a high end TR item, your average Smith .375 are selling better than a SA dagger. A 300+K gun is not an average collectible. I do agree guns will generally move and appreciate MUCH better than military items. However your average antiques/ collectible guns are a bit slow too.

I was really commenting on you initial point that "EVERYTHING collectible has taken a hit". I can't speak for you own geographical area but I do pay attention to what's going on in the two specific collecting areas I cited above and I don't find this to be the case.
Anyone with a further interest in the firearms aspect should tune into Gunbroker,for example, and watch the prices being realized on all types of firearms. I've yet to see any real bargians. However, to be fair, many items take quite a while before they eventually sell.
Jim

One area that I collect it is Japaneses swords. The military mounted WW2 examples are doing far better than the civilian blades. I bought a blade for 4k papered and freshly polished in Japan. That same blade 5 years ago was selling 6-8k. From what I have seen I would be lucky to get 3k for it today. I also collect rare coins, the market is a bit off on them too. Now if its ultra rare and in NM condition you will sell it. But the average stuff sits for a very long time, (unless you price it to sell) Pocket watches are 50-60% off from the highs as well.

Just collect what you like and be prepared to enjoy it for a while.

For a long while, we all got spoiled by the ever rising prices that our hobby (and everything around us) was seeing. Many of us either got sidetracked or started off the hobby by thinking that this stuff is an investment, instead of collecting for the sake of history, for the sake of learning and for the sheer beauty of these items.

Like all investments, prices go up and they go down. Much of the issues that we have with prices going down are the same issues that people have when the prices of their houses or their cars or their real investments go down.

Those of us who collect for the enjoyment still are not happy with the prices dropping on the existing collection (but any such 'profits' exist only on paper... it is not until you sell that you actually can realize the difference between what you paid and what you got for it), but are pleased that new items can be found at lower prices.

The ones who collect get to enjoy and enhance their collections, the ones who invest sweat blood and are caught by the ups and downs of this and other markets.

John

Amen John!

I 100% agree with John and yet, some dealers are still saying " investment potential", , don't know if they really mean it or if they are plain stupid.

I am sure that Brian Quinn,who is the President of the Japanese Sword Collectors Society,and a friend can and would concur with your observations regarding that market. As I stated above I can speak to the car and gun collectors arena because I follow them and only know a bit what been going on with Japanese swords thru my association with Brian.
Hopefully since most people that were buying militaria as an "investment" have had a rude awakening we can go back to the fun aspects of this hobby.
Jim

But the same goes for MANY car collectors who will never see those crazy prices of the mid 2000's just before the bank scandals, housing collapse and wall street ! The announcers on Barrett Jackson are amazed at just how many great deals still out there.

Here's just one recent example:

Quote:

"RM Auctions, the official auction house of the Amelia Island Concours d'Elegance, had a record-breaking sales run in Northeast Florida over the weekend, posting a remarkable $24.3 million in total sales for ninety nine cars at their 13th annual Amelia Island sale. As many as 27 lots exceeded pre-sale estimates."

I attended the 1st day sale at Barrett Jackson this January because this is when the cars that collectors with typical incomes like the majority of us can participate. This is when you can buy either a 60s -70s nice original condition or older restored car. There were a lot of good deals termed "well bought" but IMO no giveaways. This market if anything is again IMO flat at the moment Owners aren't enjoying much appreciation but their rides are holding value.
And to address the point made above "crazy prices" were brought about by speculation. As soon as the market cooled the speculators dissappeared.
As an additional point: Barrett Jackson unlike most of their competitors no long permit "reserves" so if a car is put up for sale it will sell regardless of the hammer price.
N.B: I.m not trying to change anyones mind here I'm just pointing out what I see. I'd like to hear what some of you have to say about militaria sales/values at the SOS this year as I didn't attend.
Jim

Jim:

As long as you stayed away from the big name dealers at the SOS, there were many bargains to be had.

Even from the big ones, there was the occasional well priced for collectors item.

I found that the smaller guys at the tables, whether they were dealers or dealer/collectors, priced their items realistically. I paid 20-40% less for what I bought from them than I would have off the large tables and large web sites.

John

John:
Your assessment is in sync. with what I have been told by the few I've discussed this years SOS with.
Jim

I buy what I like, If I sell an item 95% of the time all the proceeds end up back in the hobby.

My wife love it....ya right....

Now I think about it........cars are WAY cooler than daggers! How about a 1966 GTO!

You're off by ONE year! My first brand new car was a 1967 GTO. 400 cubes,4 speed, 335 horse power,Positraction 336 gears. Gas mileage? Don't go there! Oh and sticker was around $3600!
Jim

I got a 68 Firebird 400, hood scoops, built in hood tach. Paid about $4,000 for it 10 years ago, probably worth about $10,000 now as she sits.
Been sitting for 2 years, hopefully I'll burn a little rubber this summer.
My Bird below, next to my buddies yellow 69. His was damaged in a garage fire a few years back.

I agree alot of daggers are coming back around in the market at lower prices because of previous owners who are cash strapped and let them go at a low price. IMO the market is still thriving and puts guys like me on the lower end in a good position to acquire. Larry