What is going on with our Hobby? First off I like to say that I collect since it is fun but also because I hope that the value of the item will increase with time. Recently with this Economy things have changed and prices have gone down and some people are saying there is less interest in this hobby. People are also saying that when our Generation is gone 50-70+ years old that there is nobody behind us to fill the space. Then further the assumption is that the collections will not be worth much at all. I feel that you have to be at a mature age to be able to afford some of the nicer pieces since young people don’t have that much money. We are also a minority and not every kid is interested in Militaria like they would be in Baseball. I remember when I went to shows 40 years ago I only saw old people. I did not see many young people at these shows at all. I am not so sure if there is less interested now than there was years ago. I believe there is still a lot of interest in Miliaria and WWII. These are my thoughts and it is quite possible that I am wrong on more than one point. Maybe we need to do something to spark that interest in young people to start collecting Militaria. Can’t wait to hear your thoughts. Thank you for your input. JME

Deja Vu

I am a big believer in demographics. I don't believe the numbers are there if you are looking for long term sustainability in this hobby.I will leave it to others to debate where the markets will be price wise, but I do know that if we don't see new blood in this hobby, it will suffer.

Many factors contribute to this; however, the one elephant that is in the room that people refuse to talk about is lack of interest in the under 25 crowd.

I believe there will be a toxic mix in the next decade of a general lack of interest, a glut of items as well as an unwillingness to pay the kind of prices being asked today.

As a collector, the next decade could be quite inspiring.

It seems to me the younger generation is interested in other areas of life. Perhaps higher education or recently married and wanting to buy a new home. A child on the way is expensive. When I stsrted collecting in the late 60's early 70's you didn't need to consider a bank loan to buy a dagger. Newspaper adds and garage sales payed off like a slot machine with little investment. !st class Iron Cross was 10 bucks, a 2nd class was 5 bucks. In the Dagger class SA's were the most abundant and cheapest. I bought a SS Dagger from a vet for 35.00 bucks and I thought at the time that was high. The age of the advanced collector, the economy and the excellerated prices of TR goodies put a big gap in a new generation of collectors. With the introduction of the internet and the deep pocket dealers prices have soared over the years. I thought it was insane when SA's hit 200 bucks, look at what they demand now. I'm glad I stated when I did and have what I have now or I would be to discouraged to begin this hobby. I don't think the hobby is doomed to die, but it does seem to be weak in new interest. I am 61 years old now, but I still enjoy and get just as excited as I did when I was 19 when I discover a new find. If the hobby dies, my love for it never will.

the new collectors i have spoken to at shows are all in the late twenties early thirties bracket .it seems they have disposable income again , lower mortgage older children etc . An they all want daggers , no one wants to touch the medals combat awards because of the high end fakes . so maybe the edged weapon of the hobby is a bit safer than medals tunics etc who knows ? All i can say is enjoy what you have an lets see what happens

I'm 28 and have been collecting for at least 13 years. Honestly I buy less now since there is no way I am paying what these author/dealers deem this stuff to be worth. I will on occasion buy from a regular dealer who can be a bit more realistic with their prices and where a deal can be found now and then. Mostly nowadays I buy out of the woodwork where you can pay truly realistic prices, what this stuff is really worth. Basically the author/dealers are out to squeeze ever cent they possibly can out of there product. Books that are written by dealers are for profit not to pass on any knowledge. Sure they do pass knowledge on, but that certainly is their primary motivation to write them. Even an uneducated onlooker could ascertain such.

My first SA was bought from one of the "Big Dogs" back in 1999-2000 time frame, it was nearly mint and it was only $400. I seen the same conditioned Eichorn on a site recently for $1400. I didn't know whether to laugh or get mad at this? There isn't no reason that a SA should demand these price which I guess they don't unless you are a author? As I suppose this give that SA a sort of mystical quality. A quality that turns a $600-800 dagger into a $1400 one?

I attend local shows and only see older people. Older people who think they can rip a younger guy off(not all, but a lot). If you are younger and uneducated in the hobby you are going to have a tough time anymore. Who do they trust? Because some that can seem so trust worthy are anything but. I hardly care really because I collect for the history not for profit. I would rather buy out of the woodwork. Sure I'll take the deal I find on the web one in a while but it certainly isn't habit. I think anyone who pays $1400 for a SA is a careless spender same for anyone who would pay $1500 for a beater name only Rohm SA. Its really lunacy in my opinion. Then again we all know what opinions are like don't we?

What may appear as truth to one person will often appear as untruth to another person. But that need not worry the seeker. -Gandhi

Adam you are spot on about sa prices , totally off t he map , The only ones winning are the dealers . An you are right aboutsome of them taking advantage of the young un educated , A new colletor friend of mine was sold an sa dagger which rated number one on mikes list ,an was told said rating one means rare . you couldnt make it up . Regards Rob

Some dealers are all about making the fast buck, the more bucks the better. What would they do if no one bought their over priced items.
They can't eat it or put in the gas tank. They can't go to the bank and redeem it for cash. They would take a big loss if they could trade it for gold. They can't give to a college for an education for their children or grand children. They can't trade it for medical expenses or even for a burial plot. So,in my opinion if we refuse to pay the price hopefully the prices will drop. Or am I just thinking fantasy?

I don't buy from them, so we have one. Overall though I think it would be fantasy. Since there are seemingly too many people with more money than they know what to do with, so they flush it down the toilet buying a $800 dagger for $1400. Luckily they at least get a dagger endowed with those highly sought after mystical powers Which they'll have to hang on too for 20 years to break even on. For most of these dealer money doesn't matter. Sure anyone can retire at any moment and be set for life with there whole inventory in stock.

I think that there will always be people interested in militaria, I do not however believe that there will be enough to absorb the mass of collectables on the market.

We have been accustomed to the price rises and continued to pay that bit more each time we want something. New people looking at military antiques will almost certainly look the other way when they see the prices demanded for what were mass produced easily available today in large quantity.

If things are slow now it seems logical that it is just a matter of time before it gets much worse.

Prices are obviously too high.

Most dealers will tell you that something is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. That market forces dictate value. Bull crap.

If someone with deep pockets is willing to pay $400 for an iron cross, that doesn't mean it's actually worth $400. People forget that there were millions of these made made. Yes some are more rare than others but most are plentiful.

Unlike 30-40 years ago when SA daggers were $50, someone today with a wife, kids, a mortgage and car payments can't afford to pay $1k+ for an SA dagger or any other dagger.

TR dagger collecting is a now a rich man's hobby. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out why there are practically no new young collectors coming into the hobby. And why many seasoned collectors are jumping ship.

It's simple mathematics.

quote:

Originally posted by Bernie Brule:
You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out why there are practically no new young collectors coming into the hobby.

It's simple mathematics.

Well said Bernie, only unscrupulous dealers are trying to make us believe otherwise.
When I read on a dealer's web site, " investment potential ", I really get annoyed, for the lack of a better word.

Well i feel like a silly goose. Someone asked my opion on this and i guess i was in left feild.But to get on the subject here is my two cents.I think the subject is still going full swing.We do not see it as much because the new internet crowd buys and sells and there is not like the old days of being at a gun show or such.I have several younger people that buy and make payments.One guy bought one i never seen for 2 years i forgot what he even looked like but at a show he stopped up and asked if i still had the dagger which i did he paid in full.The stigma of nazi is pretty much worn off if you go to europe the older people still live it but the younger generation doe not even care about nazi stigma any more.So I do think the younger crowd is there we just dont see it besides someone is buying this stuff. Because i am still selling it. jim

Yes, the internet is a real game changer and a wildcard in trying to pin down buyer demographics.

There are many younger people buying on the internet that fly under the radar, but they are also the first to bail out on a deal if something more important/exotic/interesting (to them!) comes along.

A good example of how the internet has increased prices of Militaria is TK Honor rings. Not that long ago, one could be had in the 3K-4K range. Now most nice examples are in the 8K-12K range!

i dont believe that the internet,per se,has increased the cost of HR's...supply and demand are the reasons here...

I have two thoughts on the internet being the catalyst of higher prices..

When the internet opened up the market for military collectibles, many people found that what they had, what they were looking for or what they were selling was not particularly rare or unusual. In many cases it was common as dirt.In many eyes, those facts should have brought down the prices due to the sheer volume of items available.

The second thought is that perhaps with the market now being opened up worldwide, sellers took the opposite tack and increased prices as a result of supply and demand. Many areas such as North America had the items and prospective new buyers with money lived in areas where they did not, or they did not have the same access to items.

Never forget that German militaria drives this hobby..nothing else comes close in the way of interest, demand and prices.

I think that what the Internet has done is opened up the world to access items, pricing and information.

With it, one is no longer contrained to finding things at local shows or from a select few with paper catalogs.

Prices are driven by supply and demand, true, but only up to a point.

There are many people who have the capacity to buy anything that they want no matter the price. And, in a wired world, these people now have a global reach. So, if someone in Russia really wants a certain item and is willing to pay anything at all for it, he will get it. The problem is that everyone else with that item or a reasonable replica of it will now expect to get this same ridiculous price or better.

How often have we been amazed at the high prices a particular item commanded and then seen tens or dozens of the same item being offered for sale immediatley after hoping to attract the same price? I have overpaid for many an item just to be able to get it. If offered a second copy of the same item, I pass.

But, greed demands that the highest price one has seen or believes one can get will drive the 'list' prices we see going forward.

The true price of an item is a function of how much you are willing to pay for it, how much you want it and how much the person selling it wants for it. And your idea of 'value' is probably very different from mine, not to mention that, over time, this changes for all of us as well.

John

Yep the world is going to hell in a hand cart. Better sell all your daggers now before they are worthless. Oh by the way let me know what you are selling first

Question? The civil war has ended over 150 years ago and people still collect it? People still collect Armor, and Japanese swords?

My point all markets have highs and lows. Collect what you like and don't worry about the "investment value"

As I read all of the post, i'm a bit unsure where the market will go. I beleive the internet has brought down prices when it first kicked off, but it has leveled since. The Economy has hurt, i'm starting to see hard to find peices being offered for sale. What worries me the Hate Speech laws being passed, internet laws in the works. I'm afraid in the future if your caught having or selling these type of hate items(we all know we are collecting history) that you'll be punished. Just like they did in Germany in early 2000's. So I'm betting on the later and selling everything(but a few items)I have in the near future. I just need a photographer to work for me.


"Germany has concluded a Non-Aggression Pact with Poland... We shall adhere to it unconditionally... we recognize Poland as the home of a great and nationally conscious people."
Adolf Hitler - 21st May 1935

E Rader hit the nail on the head, treat it like a hobby and get what you want and can afford. There are better ways to make money than collecting old war junk! Buying from internet dealers includes the price of their hard work and knowledge; which will easily double (triple?) the cost of an artifact! I will and have made purchases from the internet because sometimes I have the $$$$ and just have to have it NOW, but the most fun for me personally is when I go dig it out of the woodwork! By the way; digging includes, travel, hotels, dining, hobnobbing, adventure, and last but not least the wife, who is getting a pretty serious collection of sweetheart jewelry! HOBBY or Headache YOU decide!
Militaria N Mississippi
John

For those of you that say the WW2 hobby is in trouble and no new blood please explain this...Civil War artifacts are only rising in value and unless you have serious contacts or are as lucky as sin..the harder to find stuff is almost impossible to find...WW1 Canadian and British uniform items are at at all time highs and are increasingly difficult to locate...and all the vets are now deceased...I have attended Canadian shows for over 28 years and I can count on my ten fingers the number of times WW1 Canadian tunics, fieldgear or groupings were offerred at a show....Naploeonic uniforms and headgear are at astronomical prices and highly collected as are Czarist Imperial Russia...price out that stuff...Falklands medals are increasing daily and they are from 1982.....yes Third Reich stuff has taken a hit and this is my belief...those other areas have no stigma dogging them...Third Reich militaria suffers from politics and always will...if you can accept that your hobby of interest will always be victim to this then you can enjoy your hobby and yes you can still make money from it...the last time I went to a bookstore there were more books about WW2 and Nazi Germany than any other....there are still WW2 movies...look at Inglorious Bastards..I was in Paris when it was released and the lineups and poster campaign were huge.......lastly I would rather have an $8000 M-36 SS than a $12,000 number 1 Barbie from 1958 in a box...it is plastic and a toy and made in Japan...and they still sell...c'mon guys...enjoy the hobby...remember 10 years ago when everyone said that the new wave of 3rd Reich medal reproductions would kill the medal hobby??? Already came and went...cheers, Ryan

Ryan, my argument is this; I agree that there are still people buying these items at often inflated prices, but the fact still remains: nearly every single one of them is over 25 and has the money to do so.

I agree with you that it is very uncommon to see WW1 Canadian items..where did it all go?

*********

The involvement of those under 25 in the hobby of collecting militaria is statistically too small to be of any consequence.The real crisis on the horizon will be lack of serious involvement in the hobby.

Sure, there are those that collect for fun and will overpay for their items. There has always been these collectors and there always will be. They are statistically an anomaly as well.


I get out and talk to the kids (when and if they want to talk to an over 40 adult!) and they do not see the point in spending $600.00+ on an army dagger which (historically) means nothing to them.

I suppose we can all speculate as to what will happen, but time will tell.

Doug,

There are quite a few kids - I mean under 14 or so - who collect this stuff. I attend all 7 shows in Raleigh and the same ones show up with their fathers show after show. They buy German tinnies and even more US and allied stuff. One is trying to get all the WWII US Army enlisted collar brass and USN trade patches. His brother is going for the ribbons for WWII campaign medals. They look in awe at the daggers and ask good questions.

15-25 ? They are probably into cars, girls, school, girls, summer break, girls, etc There are a few, but not many.

You seldom see the younger people at the big shows because those often mean a motel, long trip, etc. That applies to a lot of people under forty as well. Money is tight, and so is vacation time so getting to the big shows is tough.

Dave

Just some ramblings - it didn't kill the medal area only because the new fakes you can't tell the difference.

GAB ,SWB, Heer visor devices, campaign shields, don't care who you are your fooling yourself if you think you know..
It was only a few months after when that really good GAB book came out that a firm in Warsaw had one in their shop and was making perfect copies. That was years ago!..
Same with EKs,, a Floch from a few years ago are only distinguishable because of the date is slightly high [or is that low ] and the mark on the pin! come on,,lets guess how good they are now.. I wouldn't take any of them if you gave them to me..

Daggers? I guess the guys specializing in them know what their doing..

Cloth? ,ridiculous. Case in point, last month I sold a early issue Zelt [knowing exactly where it came from] It was returned because [main reason] there were buttons replaced and the pegs painted! imagine that! 5 years of war and he wanted one that would be perfect!
A couple years ago we had a friend that had 2 black PZ wraps that a US vet brought home, they were 100% good. At the MAX [or was it SOS] a expert didn't like the way the eagles were sewn on and proclaimed them 'probably fakes'!

No one can agree 100% on bullion eagles whther they be Heer or SS.

Some of the leather gear is so good that after worn by re-enactors a few years they are indistinguishable from the authentic.

Helmets? give me a break ......


25yr olds want,, Jobs, cash, women, good drugs, fast cars/bikes [not in any official order ] You can count the young guys on one hand at the MAX/SOS..

Adults will always collect this stuff. People usually only get burned when they buy strictly as an investment and let others do the homework for them.

"Go east young man"- I suspect looking at the intermediate future, much will be going to Eastern Europe and Russia...that's how many collectors in the age bracket who will liquidating their collections in 5-15 years will recoup and turn profits. Long term- who knows!! My magic 8 Ball hasn't worked in about 20 years

However, don't totally discount younger Americans interest in the war. Many younger men 20-30 are avid watchers of the Military Channel and are actively interested in the war. I think this group is an untapped market which has potential.

just one thing and I do not disagree with anything written....they are fakes in all areas of collecting where money is involved...reproduction toys, art, civil war and Napoleonic, stamps, coins and even friggin Beanie babies...Hobbies survive... who is collecting all the old cast iron toys and banks, and old dolls from 140 ++ years ago...those that remember and played with them are long since dead.....or the very expensive toys from the 2o's and 3o's? cheers, Ryan

I suspect a further reduction in prices of daggers due to falling euro. I switched to fireamrs of the same period, and that on the other hand, did not see price reduction but auctially price increase. The reason is, the fireamrs cannot be shipped to europe and are trade within US only. With economy without much future, I would not count on any serious increase in edge weapon prices in the near future but decrease with the fall of Euro.

quote:

Originally posted by Swordfish:
"Go east young man"- I suspect looking at the intermediate future, much will be going to Eastern Europe and Russia...that's how many collectors in the age bracket who will liquidating their collections in 5-15 years will recoup and turn profits. Long term- who knows!! My magic 8 Ball hasn't worked in about 20 years

However, don't totally discount younger Americans interest in the war. Many younger men 20-30 are avid watchers of the Military Channel and are actively interested in the war. I think this group is an untapped market which has potential.

Many valid points given above. The prevalence of fake and altered items along with highly inflated prices keeps many potential collectors away. Imagine having the desire to start a modest collection, saving up, and buying an item only to discover that you've been had. It has happened to all of us, but at today's prices the sting will sour the new guys and drive them away.
Ask yourself - what have you done to encourage new collectors? Have you tried to help any with initial purchases? Have you offered the benefit of your experience? Have you perhaps given a new collector an item which you could spare to fire up their interest?

Just my 2 cents...Mike

The strange thing is, that even with the availability of the war merit crosses, there seems to be no interest in them from younger collectors.

I feel that they are the most reasonably priced 3rd Reich award, and the one that gives you the most bang for your buck.

Mike,
That's a very valid point. Younger collectors have said to me, that they feel the experienced, veteran collectors are unaproachable and they receive cool receptions. Opinions vary, though I do believe there is some merit in the statement. Fostering an interest in the hobby will help ensure that when the time comes, older collectors don't get totally hosed. Those who will be holding onto their stuff for another 30 years...we'll have to see.

** A concern is this: if in the near future items are manufactured to such a degree that it will be difficult to differentiate between good and bad, it could potentially turn interested persons away, simply because they won't take the risk. I personally see this as a possible and significant risk in the future.

Swordfish,
Some items are already being made that are so close to the originals that only true experts can tell. Why? Surely not so that new collectors can buy a representative item at an inexpensive price to "fill the hole" in a collection. No they are designed to deceive and extract the maximum from the unwary newbie.
As for older collectors being helpfull I have had both good and bad experiences. The internet has been a game changer and anyone who seriously wishes to learn can find the tools but the guidance of the experienced collector and his encouragement is what is needed to keep this hobby going.

Naturally Mike. Look at our friend from Germany cranking out the wound badges and the CCCs. I don't want to digress into a repro discussion, but there are still artifacts that will always be free form uber deception...simply by virtue of the overwhelming # of patterns and variations produced the NS era.....which fortuneatly for me is what my primary collecting interest is.

Tom

What no one really thought of is what it takes to get this stuff.

Yes a common medal is easy to get. But try to get a dagger at a auction. Good luck. I watch uninformed people pay 1000 for a beat up kreigsmarine. Watch the same people pay 55 or more for common tinnies since there is a swaz on it. There is countless examples like this. What once stayed in the area where the item is found is now being offered worldwide. Hell last year I tried getting a gov dagger at a auction. I started the bidding at 300. No one in the crowd wanted it. It was just me and the phone bidder from nc. I made him pay 3000 for a dagger that had problems with the blade.I wanted it for a filler. Out of the 41 daggers I have I dont have a gov or a dip How many people on this forum will sell their collection for less than what the bigger dealers are asking. NONE. The big guys know this. It takes more and more money to get the collectors to part with their items. Hence you have to pay more in the end. Even then it is painful. Even when the more experienced IE old collectors die how many people are after the widow just to be able to buy it. Even if it goes to auction how full is the hall and how many lines are bidding from the internet. Too many.

In my 10+ years of selling and buying antiques I noticed anything historical will hold up over a period of time. As long as they are making movies and writing books there will always be a interest.

Also another factor. American civil war stuff most of it only has interest in the USA. Now look at WWII items. It is not just one country involved. If one country is hurting another is booming. The eastern block is doing well. Hence the russians and the other satellite countries are buying.

Im 31 with a fairly large collection. I have no plans on selling now or in the near future. If anything I am always looking for another piece. Looking for dagger 42. Hell in the past two weeks I picked up a Radom 9mm, one 98k bayonet matching numbers, double proofed hj dagger, short dress bayonet, b-24 bomb site, grouping belong to a tank destroyer in the 66th with his ph, and a legion of merit named. The really great one of a kind stuff is gone but the other stuff is still around.

..and how many of those people at the auction are dealers hoping to score and max out on the profits? Too many.

Relatively no one was interested in these items till the prices started going out of sight.

I get calls 3 and 4 times a week from dealers, antique malls etc looking for 'cheap' Nazi items.

These are the same people that wouldn't give me fair value when I was a young picker with knowledge.They couldn't be bothered.

Out of curiosity,what was the point of bidding up an item you had no interest in? All it does is reinforce the notion that all German items, no matter what the condition , are worth real big money.


I for one, have placed many items on the forum for sale at below dealer cost. The only people who seem to want to buy with any frequency are the other dealers!


We're pricing ourselves out of the market, friends..

http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=176860504
true prices of SAs on gunbroker auctions, please view no reserve auctions, they go for under 500 bucks. Those are real prices, prices what people want to spend on the common dagger.

http://www.gunbroker.com/Auction/ViewItem.aspx?Item=181721697 or this one. What dealers are asking are greatly overpriced.

I am 27 years old, and I have to agree with Swordfish. I love this hobby and I lap up all the information that I can, but and this is a big but. Some people are very reluctant to share information. This is the typical reponse you get when asking a question on forums on the internet.

"Get a book"

I have all the books, but one thing that I have realised is that many collectors have many different theories on a lot of things in the hobby. Sure there is consensus but when it comes down to the nitty gritties then that is where the trouble begins and the arguments. These types of aspects about the hobby is what I see as factors that can drive new collectors away (it almost did with me). Debate and discussion is great and I think it is awesome that things like this happen, but at what cost?

I think that if people want to invoke more interest in the hobby than rather then push new collectors away (which the the general vibe I get on forums) rather nuture and help them out when they have questions and seek advice. I think the older generation has a responsability to younger collectors to help them through the beginning phases.

If it wasn't for people like Fred Prinz, RedBaron, Krullies etc than I think I would have left the hobby a long time ago. Not trying to single people out but the above mentioned have been great helps in the past.

Hey, HI François

I'm, WOW ... well, honoured? To see ME listed there ... Next to Fred?

Is that a typo? Anyway, no, THANK YOU, so much! But, ofcourse, Im GLAD to be of help? But Im new'ish like you.

I discussed books once, on another forum, with someone who's name I see here? But we lost track I guess ... books are great? But, like school, when you go OUT, the world is NOT like in books! Books give a great startingpoint, if used in the right way, and so NOT as absolute truth? I mean, you need some basics, like terminologies, and names, and types, and shapes, forms, sizes + whatnot. But ALSO, you NEED friendlies! People that help.

I came with NOTHING, but a few things, with swastikas? I mean, WTF iz THAT? I came for info, 'cause I wanted to sell, what I need old nazi warcr*p for anyway? So, no antiquesshop gave any substantial money, so, I figured, use internet to find out WHAT the hell it was? And, wow, many people collecting this stuff??? Wasnt hard to find WAF. Gotta start somewhere, right?

Anyway, people were sorta helpful, up to a point, and I guess my configuration only helps negatively. BUT, some VERY VERY awesome people out there, helped me on the way. Not only, to give info point blank, but also, to point to were to look? Or HOW to look? I could name a few names, that TRULY helped SO MUCH, and that are SUCH great people, but Id be a namedropper, and I dont wanna be.

So, YES, books, thumbs up to those! But also, to those helping people n00bz, like me, who have no clue. Now, I know, girls think differently, and maybe slower on the pick up of things + stuff? And if were not, then, who da hell do we silly women think we are anyway, this is a manly mens domain, right?

So, even more, Im grateful to all those that inspired me to tag along. Along the way, theres GREAT fun in this! Also great grief, if youre careless, but thats something totally different. Oh, and ALSO, you need to know when to not stick yer nose into something *LOL* Theres a LOT of headbashing going on, not always below surface even. Im not understanding any of that. But, maybe, I will, some day, still, not intending to grow up, as I want FUN with this, so, possibly never. Oh, ofcourse, we girls chitterchat much, too *LOL* Some of us, some days, anyway

Lets have fun François, keep the good, loose the bad
Karin-Renate

I agree, only Russians can buy for a decent price. This hobby will die out in a short period of time. Sooner or later, people wont remember about WWII in US. In Russia, it will take more time but it will happen eventually as well. In China they do not care about WWII German Items at all. How many people collect swords from Middle Ages? Not many I assume. Same will happen to the daggers and swords. The situation with the firearms from WWII is different, I think. I started collecting firearms that were used by Nazis, and the prices were not that influenced by Eastern Europe and Russia, since it is much more difficult to ship or transport the firearms. So as investment and as hobby, firearms collecting has much brigher future here. If you compare a thousand dollars common SA (yes different makers) but just an SA they made millions of them and a PPK for the same price, PPK or PP or a Hi Power will hold much more value. We are talking the same price here. Guns are even lower. For the price of a chained SS, I can buy an SS Sniper Rifle. Which is really rare and always can be sold here. IMO of course. I will try to sell my daggers to Russia while they have interest in daggers. The market is very weak here and I would not want to take a loss. Neither would any of you guys.

Lots of people taking losses these days Oleg..there are many collections coming onto the market right now.

Daggers and musty old tunics mean zilch when the mortgage is due or the kids want meals on a consistent basis and that is the shame of it.

It can be a guessing game..hold on longer to maximize your profit, or be forced to go all in with a below market price.This, in order to get what you can before the market floods and your items lose most of their value.

Hi Oleg, dont get discouraged,, the economy is pretty rotten and is putting alot of peoples backs up against a wall forcing them to sell their collections. I dont believe alot of people will forget WW2 or the Third Reich era. Amazingly there are quite a few young people out here that read history. Those who read it will not forget. In all countries revolutions and civil wars are not forgotten after a few centuries. Here in the US The Revolutionary War is very collectible as is the Civil War in 1865. Reenactors and historians ( we as collectors) keep these hobbies alive. "Dont Throw in the towel" or (dont give up) because of the economical climate. Just because it is cloudy outside doesnt mean its going to rain!! Hang on to your investments because its your future. No one forgot Picasso or Monet and collectors are still buying these paintings at very high prices. Doug said it best ...

You would be amazed at what people collect that is a few hundred years old and what we consider rubbish. I parted with 3 SAs and one of them was a Bulldog,, I kick myself to this day, letting those go. Stay the course if you choose and your patience will pay off. Best to you Oleg,, Larry

I don't know if its actual interest by some East Europeans or that they have so much disposable income that they buy what's 'hot' at the moment.. What is happening is their economy now sucks like everyone else's and those with the super money have a bunch of these cool pieces already and it's time to move to something else.. It has cooled off there in the last year or 2 considering the last 6 or 7..

Sure we'd all love to have some US civil war stuff, or Napoleonic era, Vikings etc. but there is very little out there. There are literally TONS of 3rd Reich out there and tons yet to be found,,,there will always be interest,,the cool looking regalia, the dark/horrid result of the cult of personality.
As long as there is the collecting hobby collectors will be interested in WWII 'stuff'.

I am still collecting, I just collect fire arms now. For the same price, one can buy much greater value comparing to the daggers of course. We are lucky to live in US, where one still can fairly easily obtain a permit to buy WWII guns, and rifles. Hopefully, it will continue to be so. As for Eastern European buyers, there are a lot more collectors there than here. We, generation of 70s or 60s, when we were kids were amazed by WWII staff and we all played "Germans" against "Russians" war games. Now, these people are holding key position there and have a lot a lot of cash. An average person cannot afford the good staff, but a person with money, does not care how much it cost. I was there on many occasions in resent history, and it is crazy how much money some people have to spend. They spend more than those rich Arabs in oil rich Middle Eastern Countries, and they "Russians" are interested in WWII staff, unlike Chinese or Middle Easterns. I think due to internet and due to easy shipping to Eastern Europe, the prices for the daggers were greately overinflated. It was a bubble of some sort. Now they are cooled down, but one can still get a good deal overseas of course.

Like Oleg, I have backed off from my dagger buying and switched to firearms. I can purchase a WW2 correctable handgun for usually less than a dagger and find them easier to sell if needed..Although daggers have come down some in price lately.

A collection went to auction in Canada this Saturday,August 7th..the collection was 45 years old and was valued at between $60-80k..

The whole collection was sold to two buyers

Price: $12,500.00 Canadian

Means nothing. Very often the auction houses have trouble collecting and the sellers have to wait long long time getting their money. I am speaking of my experiences. In addition, auction fees, sometimes very high.

Hi Oleg1, all,



Now THAT I DO know from experience too ... Auctioneers usually take about 1 third of the winning bid? AND very often also a sorta flat-fee'ish amount for the 1st amount (this could be 500, or 1000, in whatever currency you have), so, you ALWAYS end up with WAY less then you think.

Anyway, I think, 2 things are addressed? François is saying something different, like, how new people are treated, but ofcourse that depends on how the new people act too? I don't know, we new'ish folk just have to find out what you experienced people know already? And, I do understand that some1 has to sorta "earn" to be given info when asked. This is more so with SS stuff I think. Some stuff has different kind of collectors.

And you refer to the money/value of things? Im not really 1 to speak, maybe, but, I think, I, "we" I should say, see this as something fun, great to do, interesting? So, looking at it from that point of view, its more like, when you go skating, or running (I truly love both SO FRIGGIN' much!) then, you dont mind to invest a whopping amount in good shoes, 'cause, hell, yer feet, they HURT if you wear those cheapo sneakies. And, wearing those supersale skates? Ya lost that front wheel right there purrdy good missy, sure must've hurt cracking that knee on the asphalt there, goodluck with that! ... So, you dont go for a nickle+dime on that stuff. When these shoes/skates are worn, you throw them away. No money left in it. Or that übercool new *place-favorite-hobby-item-here*! Or that flashy new car? Or supercomputer? They don't return the money you put in it. So, its more like money spent to enjoy, not to keep value, or make profit? I think, if you get what you paid originally, well, you had a GREAT time enjoying the items for free! Now THERES coolness But I do understand that MANY people see it differently, and theres a HUGE business in this stuff going on? Anyway, just my .02 ...

Sincerely,
Karin-Renate

and about 10years ago there were some that said this hobby would die out.....Interesting as of today,,"10 years later",, that dying phrase is till being said!,, and 80 years after the war!
The world was also suppposed to come to an end ,,, MANY TIMES..but those phrases and people came and went. Everyone here on this forum is entitled to their opinion, which is a great contribution to this hobby. Yours included!! One thing I have not seen here,,,is any "arm twisting" into anyone elses personal doctrine or thought. That junk died in 1945.


but also you have a choice because "you" have to do what you think is best for "yourself",, and others here will do the same.
Best Regards Larry

Just a general impression here:
The "collecting" market today is soft in just about any area you care to look at except the true upper tiers. The market for high end collectible autos or firearms,for example, as well as just about anything else at that end of the spectrum remains strong. Just tune into ,for example, one of the Mecum auctions on TV.
When people are worried about their jobs and all the attendent things that go along with a bad economy collecting interests tend to get put on the back burner. If and when the economy improves I suspect interest in collectibles will ramp up again.
Jim

Oleg..selling off your items for a fraction of their value because the market is soft means nothing?

I beg to differ. That was bid total before the obligatory sales tax, with no commission at the auction.There were the usual lot there, dealers, pickers etc..no one had the spare cash to invest and the lot actually went to 2 collectors..imagine that.

In better times, that lot ( including SS items) would have generated big money. I know of two large collections at the moment that are being broken up, and by my account, that makes 12 this year alone.

The market's changing.

As collectors, we should be happy..as investors, some may be disappointed..

Its been over 4 years since this post and since I've been on this forum. I would like members input on this topic.

I think its fruitless to try to predict the future, and I also think that anyone collecting solely for investment purposes shouldn't be in this field of collecting.
I think TR merchandise will always be collectible due to its notoriety and historical value, but also due to its quality and sheer variation when compared to other countries of the same era.
On the one had, the farther away events get in time the less they will be on peoples minds. On the other hand, the older artifacts become the more desirable they are to many, so time will tell which dynamic will win the the end.
1 thing is certain - If average SS daggers go down to the $250-$500 range there will be a drastic drop in counterfeits ... If they go up to the $7-$10k range there will be an increase.

I don't get it why we have to pay, let's say, $10K for a dagger... I appreciate the history, quality, etc but it blows my mind how ridiculously high prices can be with certain dealers.

I agree with Doug... If you drop the prices for SS daggers there will be a drastic drop of counterfeits... raise the price and you'll open a new world/market for scammers and crooks!

Gents,
Legitimate dealers who are in the business of making money charge what the market will bear. It is the fundamental basis of the free market capitalist system, period. Many of these dealers have been in business for decades so someone is buying their items. They also have to pay what suppliers, such as yourselves, want to get for their items. They do not make these. They are not a manufacturer of these artifacts. There is a finite number available. Would you sell your SS dagger for $400 so the dealers can sell them for $500? Of course not. Supply and demand are one of the fundamentals of our capitalist system. If you want price control, turn to North Korea. Don't forget what you learned in High School Economics class.

Strato,

Right on.

John

Didn't read the whole thread, did someone ask for price controls ?
Everyone knows about supply and demand well enough, everyone knows dealers did not make these items, am not quite seeing the purpose of tangents here.
This thread I thought was about whether or not younger collectors can/will fill the void left by older collectors and what effect this transition will have on future market prices of TR items.

I agree TR merchandise will always be collectible ..

2 things though,,,less and less newbies coming in to the hobby. And, those that are interested can't really afford to purchase what they really want anyway..

It's been going on a slow death the last few years. Yeah sure there are going to be a few dealers that will come in here [maybe?] and say how the last few shows have been their best . blah blah blah ********..

I'm on Long Island [North East U.S.] New York I can report in my area..
The local shows [those that are left!!] here in NY, NJ, Conn. and slow and going down period..
The big shows , SOS, MAX also [no matter what anyone else says] have been going down the last few years.
Look at what we're seeing with the MAX / SOS merger,,,this happened because things are going great!!

Finite amount of items out there,,the bad [now] global economy, less newbies, low interest, inflated prices on 'hot' areas of collecting, thieving dealers, near perfect copies,..

Face it guys,, its done,,and its not coming back ,,,at least not anytime soon , read- our lifetimes...
It's not just us,,its the BaseBall [sports collectable] cards, the Barbies, coins, toys in general, motorcycles, books / comics - ALL slow going and heading towards at best stagnation..

I'm not sad, nor distressed etc. at all. Been collecting since the mid 1970s. Had some great pieces. Seen better than museum pieces.. Had some very good times/experiences, and really best of all met some great people. Got friends all over the world. Hobby wise, its been good to me, I'm fine whatever way it goes....

Gaspare, are you saying that I should liquidate my Barbie collection ??
I dunno man, I might part with an SS dagger or 2 but not my Barbies !

But seriously [and I wasn't serious, really !], all "collectible" markets took a hit from which they'll not likely recover anytime soon. 1 thing remains true across the board whether its SS daggers, Barbies or Superman comics - Rare & top condition items hold and increase their value, common and bad conditioned items are stagnant and declining. If anything, how these items fare is probably the best measuring stick of all to what the future portends - For the interest at the top tends to trickle down to the bottom.

Oh man I got some funny Barbie storys!
anyway...

Yes you are right! Trickle down,,and that's when you know the hobby is in big trouble,, decline and/ or stagnation points

Look at what some were paying a few years ago for simple Russian Front medal,,and a GAB!!
Because of production amounts of certain makers, 'rare' variations, materials. A monograph comes out, its own forum etc.

Collectors were paying 3 times over what they should have been paying! Lately I see them on another forum site trying to liquidate their collections. In reality, A GAB is a GAB is a GAB,,,ok, yes there is a solid back and a hollow back , different makers but nothing that justifies paying triple what a 'standard' example in similar conditions would cost..

Some years ago this happened with ribbon bars, Soldbuchs, SS buckles [they held though], SS eagles, cap devices, EKIIs, wound badges, cufftitles, Army/SA daggers, Honor Rings,,everything gets its turn being 'hot' and those buying at the time over pay big time....After a while some end up with a gigantic collection of common run of the mill pieces not worth anywhere near of what they paid just a couple years ago.

I don't collect in order to make money when I sell. I collect to get 'all' of something, like etched bayonets or Eickhorn maker mark variations.

Like many of us, I used to and still do collect all kinds of things... stamps, books, music.

I have a collection of over 20,000 music CDs and do not moan about how little they are worth today vs how much I actually paid for them. I do enjoy listening to them though, which is really why I got them in the first place.

Same thing with my collection(s). I am unloading some of my high end items gradually while I still can and hope that my kids will be able to realize some value from the rest of my collection when I go to the great hobby store in te sky. For my kids, this will be gravy even if they realize 10 cents to every dollar that I spent.

I collect for the sake of collecting. The thrill is in the chase, not in owning and holding after. So, enjoy while you can and let others worry about net realizable value.

John

John,
You have summarized eloquently the essence of what collecting is all about IMO. I too place intrinsic value on the treasure hunt, pride of display and ownership. The value we derive from the friendships we develop in this pursuit is priceless. If my estate sells my collection for 20 cents on the dollar I will have more than broken even.
Rick

Rick:

You guys are so right about the people in this hobby, mostly great to know and a handful that it pays to avoid.

I go to the shows, not because of the great items to see and find there, but to hang out with the amazing people who are in this hobby.

John

Hi John, yer from YYC! I'm not that far from you. In which part of the city are you?

The south end.

John

John, you are so spot on. It is the great relationships I have developed that keeps me in the hobby and also learning. No I don't think the hobby is dying, it is just maturing and changing. Commerce in general is rapidly changing. Most younger folks prefer to buy on the web. Heck, they rarely talk with one another face to face any more. Yes, I'm afraid the Internet has changed forever the way we learn, conduct business and communicate. Thus, the hobby will evolve along with it. Sadly however, people will miss out on the face to face communication and relationships we hold dear by not going to shows. Having said that I have met many new and interesting people as a consequence of the Internet. It has also opened the world to collectors. It is truly a global endeavor now. The hobby is not dying but shows are. This is why us older folks perceive the hobby as dying. Just my opinion.
Rick

Hi all, I am in fact one who is new to the hobby. I like to say that it was because I found an ss honor ring by chance and luck, but now I think maybe the ring found me...at first, I thought- maybe I should ditch it, ASAP, it may have bad juju, you know? But then I started reading and researching, and I became obsessed... I am young-ish, 41, I have a wife and two beautiful kids, ages 4 and 2. I don't have the disposable income that many folks have who are older than me, so I'm not going to be making any major purchases. In fact, I'm a history teacher...and I love history. I can sit down with a book or a person who has been there, done that and lose sense of time...I'm not young like my brother in law (29) who was into militaria until he found a girlfriend, and I'm not interested in shirking my mortgage or leveraging my kids college educations on an SS dagger. I think everything happens for a reason, and from my perspective, there must be a reason I'm here...you all make very salient points about the changing of the guard, the economy, the state of mind of people of many different generations...I can't argue with any of these points, you all are correct...but here's my experience...many guys my age do like to find an escape, activity, or hobby and that's what that is to me. I'm not interested in profit or neo nazi-ism, I'm interested in the person who lived and left an amazing artifact about what life meant to him and his nation, forget about borders and battle lines...in addition, I was lucky enough to meet some amazing ppl at my first max show, and not to diminish it, but that experience and the friends I'm making are worth more to me than a ring.

Four years! Time goes by so quickly!

Since that last post, I have seen many, many collectors get out the game. Some of them passed away and others simply dumped their items while retaining a passing interest in the hobby.

I have not seen any real uptick in the number of young collectors and the show goers just keep getting older...including me!

I started collecting in 1976 and at that time, you could pick up a grab bag full of goodies for a relatively small amount of money. I can remember getting a few badges (inf assault, wound badge, iron cross) for about $25.00..helmets could be had for $25-30 dollars (a fortune!)

Flags could be had for next to nothing. SA daggers were inexpensive as well. German militaria was the bad cousin at gun shows, and only those really interested asked for these relics. There has always been a hard core, dedicated group of collectors for these items.

The graying of this hobby is well under way. I will not say that this will be the death knell of the hobby, but all such hobbies need new blood and I just don't see the younger crowd interested enough to even maintain replacement level.

Again, go to the shows...see the crowds and notice the lack of young faces. The militaria show is dying a slow, demographic related death. The younger collector (the few that there are) are not willing, nor capable on the whole, of paying the prices for relatively common items.

If you were a young collector with student loans etc, could you justify spending $1k on a relatively common SA dagger for eg.?

I know I have bias because I do this for a living but a few things to consider:
1- The Russians have exited. The Rubel is down 20%+ vs the US$. There are a huge # of Russian collectors so demand has been affected. There is demand being pent up and when the geopolitical thing settles down they will be back with a vengeance.
2-The US$ is also up significantly against all other major currencies, AU$, CAN$. EURO. This too has delayed purchases.
3- Lets face it, show attendance is down, not just in militaria but coins, stamps. Bennie babies etc. The hobby is now on-line that's where the action is. Major shows are now mostly dealer swaps.
4- No new young collectors, well you are right most young people do not have the $ to get into this. IMHO as people age history becomes more important to them and that draws people in... as well as later in life they start to have some disposable funds to even consider such a purchase.

Bernie's post is the best,imo.It's simply too expensive.
When i see the prices of an SA dagger or ss, or Luftwaffen honor goblet etc.
Gerd

In my opinion, any rational person willing to pay $400 for an iron cross must intrinsically feel it is worth it. Is it above average market? Today, yes likely. But if a dealer finds someone willing to pay that price is the dealer wrong in pricing it as such? If you extrapolated Bernies argument, then gold would have less value than it does as it is only a soft shiny metal, diamonds are nothing but a hard rock and all of these minerals are in great supply. What makes these valuable? Conspiracy theorists would argue cartels, but I further digress. Point is that everything is in fact only worth what someone is willing to pay for it in an unregulated environment, like it or not. Therefore, eventually the dealer will lower prices if he cannot find a buyer or increase them if he has high demand. I think this is hard to argue against and is the primary basis for the largest economy (USA) on this planet...oh wait, China who adopted the capitalist system and has limited regulations is now first..sorry.

Yes militaria collecting is expensive, but is all relative to ones Discretionary Income. Lets be honest here. There is a vast range of Militaria at different price levels that is available and makes it possible for almost all to participate. I think people gripe about dealer prices because they want to collect rarer pieces at a price they can afford given their budget. Who doesn't ? I understand this completely. I do as well. But to demonize dealers is baloney IMO. The beauty of a capitalist system says you do not have to pay $400 for an EK if you don't think it is worth it. You can go elsewhere. Perhaps, your desires outstrips your income. You need to be realistic. Tough talk I realize but I can't afford a Ferrari but I sure would like one. Maybe the dealer is charging too much?

Now after that diatribe; relative to new comers to the hobby, yes the maturing of this hobby has caused most collectibles to rise in value relative to 20 years ago and also the rise in extremely good quality fakes which is also developing its own market. This rise coupled with stagnancy in our purchasing power of the average worker in the US due to globalization has made it more difficult for younger folks to jump into the hobby. Most newcomers I meet are in their late 30s' to early 40's. I have been collecting for 17 years. I didn't start seriously collecting until I was 39 years old. Could not afford what I wanted to collect. I don't know that this has changed all that much. So our job is to introduce and educate new comers to affordable options relative to their budget by personally going out of our way to help them. The worst thing a newbie can do is buy something that really stretches their budget and then only to learn that there is a problem with it. This turns this person off who relates their experience to others compounding a negative experience. Education is what separates long time collectors from drive buy purchasers. My recommendation to any new comer is to first invest in reference material and adopt an experienced collector in the area they want to collect. I for one would gladly post my name as a Mentor for anyone interested in collecting Imperial Navy edged weapons. I would be glad to spend whatever time is necessary to help others. How can this Forum further promote reaching out to less experienced collectors and pairing them with experienced collectors?
Best, Rick

This is what I like about this forum...we are here to help each other. Ok, prices are high for lots of things (and I wish some things were cheaper...lol!) however there's always some good advice given here to the (new) collectors.

I think that a person must make out for himself what he can or can't afford. Don't spend your "family" money on militaria is one of my advices to the new collectors. Family comes first!

If you have that little extra then go ahead and buy your item. But please make sure you have the money in your pocket and don't go into debt for a dagger, helmet, or other militaria. It's not worth it!

I wouldn't say that collecting TR daggers is a rich man's hobby... the collector just needs to be aware of what he can or can't afford (use common sense).

I have found that Allach porcelain, wisely purchased from knowledgeable dealers is a very sound investment, both in personal satisfaction and gain on purchase price. On a bad day, you can always get what you paid for it which is hard to say for a couple of named German General officers uniforms I have had for 10 years. Then again, they display with a great degree of historical significance. Now, if I could only find a home for the 175 SA/SS daggers I have squirreled away over the years. I do enjoy having a hoard of them though! Each one, for me, represented a good chase which outweighed the catch more often than not. (Well, not ALL of them)!

Mark

Hi Mark,

how many pieces of Allach do you still have in your collection?

Hi guys, thanks for some good advice, I feel that's been my main consumable right now. Rick, if I head in the direction of the imperial navy, I am going to look you up! Actually my only 2 major purchases were a COA for the honor ring (that I lucked into) and a reference book. Other than that, like I said for now, it's a side hobby for me that really only costs me a little bit of reading time, and I'm grateful to be meeting some great folks like you all.

Erich, I have about 30 pieces of Allach, mostly birds, deer, (Bugeling Elk, Roaring Stag, Standing Roebuck, etc), the elephant's, Maiden after bath and a lot of Julefest plates, both white and SS Christmas painted ones and 3-4 mounted riders. It is beautiful to look at. I also have a mint Der Fechter I got some years back from Dennis Porell. Most of my Allach came from Dennis over the years. I have much more, but that is a quick view. I would still buy nice Allach, but it is difficult to find, still.

Mark

Thx for showing me those beauties yesterday John Z! Always good to meet a fellow collector!

Gruss,

Gerry aka Panzerfaust

Nice Mark, I have seen photos years ago of your most impressive collection.

I just looked back at my comment on page one. I couldn't remember bu felt sure I would have chimed in. I have not changed that opinion and it is about where I would have expected.
The usual suspects over pricing common stuff. Some well known names gone and others liquidating, (hoping nobody has noticed and it doesn't cause a collapse).

Forum sales are dying and collector to collector values are round about 50% of dealer humped up figures. Most lurking in the forum sales are bottom feeders looking to take advantage of the desperate. At today's prices I figure my collection to be valued at around half what it cost me to assemble. I am not going to complain about that because any hobby will cost you money and I enjoyed my time. I did not expect to make anything much but I did hope it would hold it's value better than it has. It has been almost a year since I bought anything and I think I have probably quit.

Hi Guys I just add my 2 cents from point of view from eastern Europe.Im bored ,a few years ago collecting was finding another artifacts and enjoying with a few friends.Now it is only value ,prices from one side is very high but nobody wants to pay.My few friends or people who I know when I asked about confirmation of originality called me maker of repros.In many people I see obsessive needs to prove thats a repro.Flood of copies in very good quality.There are no community to talk about beauty of artifacts ,daggers etc. The interviews comes to the one end money and in what price I can sell it. I didnt buy any new dagger to my collection and Im disaponted .This place looks like the last normal stand .Ted

Yes, bored Ted, that too!
Enthusiasm is an infectious emotion and there is no longer enough of it. You are right, it all seems to be about the money now and not the item.
How things can change in just a decade. Too many of the old guard who were so passionate have now gone.

Well I feel for the guys who post things and only get a few replies. Hey many of these guys scrimp for months to share their new found treasures.
Take a second and provide some encouragement!!
Not so much here, but on another forum seems folks take a sick pleasure in trashing the next guys collection.

Good points, lakesidetrader. And you know, there really are some great guys on this forum who have some incredible stuff. It's an education just to look at it! And I agree, this is a great forum. Let's keep it encouraging and positive! I think you may have hit on a key point to keeping the hobby going...the joy of sharing your finds with friends!

Really? That says so much about the type of people who lurk around collector forums. I have signed up for several but I rarely look and even less frequently post on them.

#3 spot on assessment

Good stuff in MINTY condition will always sell. As a young collector of 10 years…. I have bought and sold 100’s great items. Buying and selling has allowed me to keep the best stuff and keep the hobby exciting. I have got to meet many great people and have established broad reach of networking. Here are some points that have not been mentioned on this topic.

1. Generation X, Y (20-30’s) have typically don’t have the expendable income as older more established people.

2. Some older collectors take advantage of younger collectors. (I have a list of name of well known dealers/collectors with documentation to prove it!) Once you burn someone it tends to make them run away from the hobby.

3. Each generation collects their past. My generation prefers Pop culture, electronics, star wars stuff, sports, electronics, big TVs etc etc. Younger people can’t relate to WW2 and when they see an SS Generals visor they say “cool skull” and could care less at about the artifacts. If it was a minty Darth Vader or transformer they would say WOW I had one of them when I was a kid. How much is it worth? Etc Etc


4. Younger people have little kids, car payments, mortgages, collage debt. Many younger people have to borrow money for all major purchases. Cheap credit is the only way our economy is running.

5. The key factor is too much DEBT. Debt the new “master” that has enslaved many in our culture. (a topic in itself)

6. Raises don’t keep up with inflation. Many of my friends haven’t had a raise in years. This adds to my point in #4

7. Food cost is up 25% on average vs a few years ago.

8. WW2 history is rarely mentioned in today classrooms. My nephews have all stated it.

9. Many older collectors are thinning out or passing away, this will allow a ton of new fresh items to be placed back on the market. However this will also drive prices down on average, common stuff. There will be many MAJOR buying opportunities now and thought the next 10 years.

Due to these factors the market will remain flat from now on until kingdom come.

Hmm, that might well be the defining post.

Quick add on to number 8, (and as someone early 40s but pretty close to everything else, no raises, high costs of living, younger kids, some debt...and I have met a couple unfriendlies, but I figure that's their problem, not mine...no time to waste on them for any reason...) But as a history teacher, I believe it, as your nephews state, ww2 isn't talked about...but it depends on the teacher, the classroom, and the curriculum. I do, but I know people who don't, and in some cases, it's a matter of generational disconnect, but in others it's a result of teachers focusing on other things, because of the culture we live in... I always say that they are still stuck in the "lies my teacher told me" mentality, that professes to undo the cornerstones of civic education, because they are "wrong" or just "not nice." I hope that the pendulum swings back and we can all realize that the past is just that. Neither to be romanticized or demonized. (Who are we to make those calls?)

What a travesty. Political correctness and censorship (institutional or individual) has produced a generation of intellectually stunted individuals that lack the insights and learnings of history to allow for sound reasoning and judgement. This is a real disservice to them and our society. You are right, History is just that. While perhaps a cliche, we must learn from it. The outgrowth of the decisions made immediately post WW1 for example continue to shape the world we live in today. It is probably not discussed either.

A few reruns of Hogans Heros should do it...(actually showed a clip from it in class once, I can't remember what concept/lesson I was introducing, but it may have just been something about POW camps...) they had never seen it... They LOVED it.

I just re-read through this entire thread and have come to an interesting conclusion. Most of the stuff real serious collectors desire is never seen by anyone else. It is usually (for me and some of my fellow collectors) offered through a phone call or a private e-mail. For example, when I want an Allach piece, I call Dennis Porrel who has sold me most of my Allach and some very fine carved wooden Third Reich plates as well. It may take a few months or years, but all but the Raven (which I will have one day) were found and sold to me. They never were advertised. Honor rings came via an e-mail from Steve Tedds in England as well as the display desk shown in one of Tom Johnsons dagger books. It was on e-bay and I hit "buy it now" and simply forgot he was in England and I was in the U.S.. The packaging and shipping was more than the Japanese Oak drawer cabinet, but Hey, I got it and that was what I wanted.
Yesterday, I bought all the Time magazines from 1941 to 1946, at an antique mall in my town for $125.00. I am having a ball reading how General Manstein was trying to get his troops out of Russia. To me, these magazines were a stunning bargain. For those who love the chase and the history of it all, owning a piece of the era for a while is simply being a good caretaker and preserver of history. I have not been active in selling my stuff, but I have had some unsolicited stunning offers which I accepted. I think it's all about knowing who has what and price, although important, is not significant as even finding a piece of whatever item you are interested in. I was offered 'The Raven" by Dennis about 15 years ago for $9,500.00. Yet, according to a thread on one of the GDC forums, it was offered at auction for $14,000 Euro's a couple of years ago. Never hesitate when you know your stuff and are offered a chance to buy it. That chance may never occur again in your lifetime.

Way to go! Been there, done that.

Oh so true Mark and Barry.
I've turned down deals over $50 only to later regret being such an idiot.
Only later do you realize the opportunity squandered.
I have learned though that the easiest thing in the world to replace is money. Finding that once in a lifetime item is so rare an even that you don't realize it until after it's past.

seems like good advice to me (because I'm a newbie) thank you guys for sharing your thoughts...It fell on ears that appreciate your thoughts! I'd call this a "purchase" of priceless advice on my end, and no regrets on that!

20 years ago that happened to me at the 1994 Max Show..and regretted it because I just walked in the door of the show and wanted to look around. Live and Learn. So now just recently.. a Type 3 Chained SS landed in front of me.,,..and am I glad I didnt let it pass from my hands. Im so humbled.

In my case, I have a different perspective, I did pass on a couple of daggers over the years but nothing that I couldn't find later on. Nothing is that rare. Daggers that I passed on are even cheaper in today's market than they were just 5 or 7 years ago. Any regrets ? Absolutely not, I'm getting much better deals today. Just try to get your money back on those daggers that you bought 7 years ago ............ good luck !

The one that got away from me was the Eickhorn prototype Luftwaffe dagger pictured in Tom W's Luftwaffe book on pages 319 to 321.

It was offered to me at a show and I balked at the price. It is now in Russia never to see the light of day in a North American collection. And, I am still kicking myself over that short sighted decision.

John

My thinking as a younger hobbyist. Buy the BEST you can afford, sell the rest. More important to collect $100 bills, invest, make a nice nest egg, and when the kids are raised and all debts are gone. I can buy what ever I want with CASH........

There is soooooo much stuff coming out on the market again. Many older collectors are thinning out and would rather sell off an item to a "worthy" collector vs selling it at the estate sale. Its a buyers market.

Interesting topic. I have been off the forums for some time and I thought the exact same thing when I logged on today. ( not that I was ever a heavy contributor ). It seems like yesterday that the forums were bursting with posts in most every category. Now, it's pretty thin compared to the good old days. I remember my first SOS show 2003 - there was a buzz about the show. A kind of electricity in the air that has certainly diminished. I consider myself a young collector at 43 and feel that I am just now getting seasoned in my knowledge of militaria.
Lots of great points brought up in this thread as to the "why" and I agree that we can't control it. I think that many of us are still crying at the fact that we can't just buy something this year and flip it the next for more money or to upgrade. I think we had a good decade of crazy price increases which turned most of us ( in the back of our minds ) into "investors rather than collectors".
Now at least I am getting back to my roots and collecting because I love it and not worrying about getting my money out of what I just bought or having it double in value in short order.
I agree with Mr. Rader that lots of great stuff is starting to hit the market again and is presenting opportunities. Maybe we can once again have a shot at those items that we passed on and regret or sold and wish we didn't...

Other forums are much more busy Scott and the hobby is still going well for the rarer items.

There is always a market for the best and the rare.

That's true Erich however I prefer a forum without BS like GDC. Plus there's lots of knowledge here in our forum!