"Overpriced" things only "correct" if demand drops. Take the case of Irrational Exuberance, which I define as a mistaken confidence in the value of a commodity, leading to an increased demand. This can cause a rapid rise in price. However, if enough people come to believe that their confidence is indeed mistaken, demand will drop, which will send prices down.
There are, however, plenty of things that go up in value, and stay there. These things get, and stay, expensive due to a reliable and accurate exuberance about a thing's value or future value. Being able to tell the difference between healthy demand and misplaced demand will help you identify expensive things that are likely to stay expensive.
The demand for SS Daggers, which has caused a steady rise in price over the years, is I believe, a healthy demand. One reason: People know why they like SS daggers, and it makes some sense to me. The demand for Knights Crosses, which has caused a quick "bubble-like" spike in prices, in my opinion, borders on the irrational. Of course, maybe I just don't see what other people see when I look at a Knight's Cross.
This is why I like getting excited about, and collecting, things that are not interesting to other people. Let's face it, Tinnies are interesting, if you start to dig into the history of each Tinnie. I don't collect Tinnies, but I do collect many other things that nobody else really seems to care about. I do it for two reasons. First, I do it because it's a cheaper and easier way to have a great time in my hobby of choice. Second, it's safe. How can the bottom drop out of something (read: how can demand drop out of something) that is already not in much demand? Answer: It can't. Unwanted things don't have far to fall.
I used to have one of the better representative collections of daggers, but I sold those to raise the capital to start my business. Many of the things I sold are worth twice what they were worth when I sold them (like my mint, attributed SS dagger that appears in Wittmann's SS Book), but other things, such as my MINT TeNo Leader dagger, are worth, I would argue, about the same. Or, if you take inflation into account, maybe a little less.
Enough of my ramblings. I'm just very passionate about the philosophy of collecting, and enjoy talking about it.
