quote:
Originally posted by SSman:
Brad. If these eagles are that rare maybe it would be worth taking a chance on it? Way less than a hundred bucks for it. Believe me I have been burned for a lot more than that!
SSman
I have gotten burned over the years too by stepping outside of my own areas of expertise to buy something I didn't know a lot about, but which seemed like too good of a deal to pass up. So, having learned my lessons, I have since adopted the personal rule of thumb in collecting to only "buy what I know." Another bit of wisdom I try to follow is "if it seems too good to be true, it probably is."
Yes, it is possible that this seller has an original, ultra-rare bullion cap eagle and simply doesn't realize its value and you could be making a real score. However, the odds are stacked against you. So, if you can't get a definite reading on its authenticity, you might want to consider whether you mind having something in your collection that you aren't sure is original. You also need to consider the difficulty you will have selling it yourself in the future. If eagles like these are so rare that experts on the WAF (guys like Hritz, Pic, Clark, etc.) don't feel comfortable making a call (with nothing on the line), you will have a tough time ever finding a buyer willing to take a chance on shelling out serious cash for it himself.
All that being said, if it is just for you to enjoy for the price, who cares? You can also look at it like buying a lotery ticket: if the cost is something you wouldn't mind losing if it turned out to be bad (which the odds say it is based on its extreme rarity), it is probably worth the gamble at the outside chance of a huge pay out.